Heartlands in crisis: Allan and Pesutto face fallout over voter disconnect

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For the most part, state MPs steered clear of the Voice to parliament debate, and none more so than those whose positions were at odds with the people they represent. As it turns out, that was quite a lot of them.

Though it may have been a national referendum, the failure of the Voice at a federal level means it now becomes an issue for the states. In NSW, the referendum result has prompted Premier Chris Minns to “go back to the table” on the NSW treaty process after the majority of the state voted No. In Victoria, Premier Jacinta Allan says the weekend’s result would not hinder treaty negotiations with the First Peoples’ Assembly.

Jacinta Allan and John Pesutto.

It’s an issue that isn’t set to go away any time soon for Allan or Opposition Leader John Pesutto, one that comes at a time when the government is considering the recommendations of the Yoorrook Justice Commision, which has called for Indigenous-led criminal justice and child protection systems.

While Allan’s public position remains unchanged, there is no doubt the Voice result will affect her government’s response to the 46 recommendations.

Within Pesutto’s Coalition party room, some MPs are using the referendum outcome to show a renewed vigour in challenging the party’s support for treaty negotiations with the state’s First Nations people.

This week, Western Victoria MP Bev McArthur, from the Liberals’ right faction, used the party-room meeting to ask what the Voice result meant for the Coalition’s position on the treaty issue, before releasing a statement titled “No Voice, No Treaty”.

Beyond Spring Street, though, it’s the electorate voting results that point to the bigger issue at hand for both leaders. Booth-by-booth results in Victoria have reinforced the demographic shifts across the state that have left both major parties increasingly losing contact with the communities once considered their base.

While the proposition was overwhelmingly rejected by Australians – and Victorians – constitutional change was incredibly popular among voters in Pesutto’s inner-city seat of Hawthorn, despite his vocal opposition to the proposal.

At a polling booth just a few blocks away from his house, 61 per cent of voters cast Yes ballots. In fact, Yes votes were in the majority across all 15 polling booths in Pesutto’s electorate.

This raises an especially tricky conundrum for Pesutto. While his opposition to the Voice was in line with the majority of the state, it was out of step with the residents of his ultra-marginal seat and hands political ammunition to any so-called teal independents who may be considering a challenge at the next election.

Allan is not off the hook either, and the Voice has also presented electoral challenges for her to consider. Last Saturday the new premier cast a vote in favour of constitutional change at Epsom Primary School, a booth in her Bendigo East electorate where the proposal was rejected by 64 per cent of her constituents.

What’s more, this result marked a broader trend for Labor, notably among its former base suburbs in Melbourne’s outer north and west that cannot be dismissed.

The weekend’s referendum is the third poll in 18 months that has highlighted Labor’s declining support in its so-called heartland seats.

The first warning sign came at the 2022 federal election, in which Labor overwhelmingly defeated the Coalition despite dwindling support in seats such as Calwell, Scullin, and Gorton that were once considered safe.

Alarm bells sounded again six months later at the state election, when the Andrews government stormed home to victory and managed to absorb significant swings against it in seats such as Broadmeadows (9.7 per cent), Greenvale (15 per cent), Kororoit (11 per cent) and Mill Park (13 per cent).

Those still writing off these results as some sort of political anomaly were brought back down to earth on the weekend. At Greenvale Secondary College, 70 per cent of voters rejected Labor’s referendum pitch. At Mill Park Heights Primary School, 62 per cent of voters also said No.

The trend is undeniable; the dynamics are shifting, and these suburban seats will soon be up for grabs.

Pesutto is all too aware of this new paradigm. Since becoming opposition leader 10 months ago, he has been quick to make half a dozen trips to Greenvale and Broadmeadows. As premier, Allan has also pivoted her focus to the suburbs with a new “suburbs” portfolio and made it part of her early pitch.

With the Liberals facing continued threats to their inner Melbourne seats, they now see their future in these outer-suburban areas and are banking on Labor being unable to patch things up with these once loyal communities before 2026.

Annika Smethurst is state political editor for The Age.

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